（中英文）歐洲股神安東尼・波頓：最佳的投資機會往往讓人感到不安（上篇）_風聞

編譯 何豔

編輯 莊澤

最近，傳奇投資人安東尼·波頓（Anthony Bolton）受挪威銀行投資管理公司CEO尼古拉·坦根（Nicolai Tangen）邀請進行了一場對話。

安東尼·波頓1950年生於英國，是英國最著名的基金經理和投資人之一，被譽為“歐洲股神”、“歐洲的彼得•林奇”“逆向投資大師”。他從1979年12月至2007年12月擔任富達富達特殊機會基金(Fidelity Special Situations)經理人，在管理該基金的28年間，實現年均複合回報19.5％，累積報酬率約達147倍，即如果最初投入1000英鎊那麼28年後將擁有14.7萬英鎊財富。

安東尼一度退休，卻因為看好中國股市而在2010年4月重出江湖，並舉家搬遷至香港定居。2010年11月22日在香港辦公室接受媒體採訪時，他曾信心滿滿地表示，貨幣緊縮不影響他在中國的佈局，中國股市的投資機會俯拾皆是！

在此次與尼古拉·坦根的對話中，這位“逆向投資大師”再次表達了對中國市場的看好。他表示，“目前全球幾乎所有市場都接近歷史高位，而中國市場卻處於相對低位，所以從反向投資的角度來看，中國市場是個不錯的選擇”。

“最近幾周，我們也看到人工智能的發展趨勢開始向中國市場蔓延。所以我認為，可以考慮從投資美國科技股轉向投資中國科技股。”

“我認為目前中國股市正處於新一輪牛市的初期”。

此外，他還表達了自己對加密貨幣、黃金等的看法。他認為，加密貨幣是市場過熱的一個信號。他表示，“如果你在尋找一個估值過高且存在泡沫的市場，那麼加密貨幣就是一個典型代表。”他認為，短期投資黃金，也並非一個好的選擇。

《大道財經》將這場對話進行了全文翻譯，並分享給大家。

如果我持有的股票與大多數人相同 我總會感到不安

**Nicolai Tangen：**Hi, everybody. Today we are in really good company because I’m here with Anthony Bolton. And Anthony Bolton, he is in a way, in my mind，the father of contrary investing. You know, the best person I know to do the opposite of everybody else and my have you made a lot of money for Fidelity over the years doing that. So a warm welcome, Connie.

**尼古拉・坦根：**大家好！今天我非常榮幸能與安東尼・波頓一同交流。在我心中，安東尼·波頓堪稱反向投資領域的傳奇人物。據我所知，他最擅長反其道而行之，多年來，他憑藉這種獨特的投資策略，為富達投資集團創造了鉅額財富。讓我們熱烈歡迎他，安東尼！

**Anthony Bolton：**Thank you, Nicolas. Lovely to be here with you. I think because very few people are doing it. But it’s so it’s almost by definition. And the trouble is in the stock market, if you do what everyone else is doing, it will work for a while. But the more people who get on the bandwagon, eventually it bursts. And I think that’s why it’s important. I always, my view of investing, the popularity is risk and conversely unpopularity is opportunity. I’m not saying everything that’s unpopular therefore is an opportunity. But I just early on, I wanted to look where other people weren’t looking. And I always felt uncomfortable if I owned something that everyone else owned. Not many people deal that way. That’s the point. That’s why I think it works.

**安東尼・波頓：**謝謝你，尼古拉。很高興能與你相聚於此。我認為，反向投資之所以有效，是因為真正踐行的人寥寥無幾，這幾乎是一種必然。在股票市場中，如果盲目跟風，短期內或許能有所收益，但隨着跟風者越來越多，最終市場泡沫必然破裂。這就是我認為反向投資至關重要的原因。

我一直堅信，在投資領域，熱門意味着風險，而冷門則藴藏着機會。當然，我並非説所有冷門投資標的都值得關注，但我很早就開始關注那些被大眾忽視的領域。如果我持有的股票與大多數人相同，我總會感到不安。很少有人會採用這種投資方式，而這正是反向投資的關鍵所在，也是其成功的秘訣。

反向投資者要樂於與眾不同

**Nicolai Tangen：**But, so when, so when you think about being contrary. I mean, what is it, what does it entail?

**尼古拉・坦根：**那麼，當你進行反向投資時，具體要如何操作呢？這其中的關鍵要點是什麼？

**Anthony Bolton：**I think it entails, I think it’s something in the personality that you feel comfortable about being different. I think most people are. They like the comfort of the crowd. They like to be reinforced. They like the people around them to be telling them, you know, what you’re doing is good. It’s what I’m doing and what everyone’s doing. So I think there’s something in the makeup of a contrarian that is really important. And it’s very difficult to put my fingers on it because often my colleagues of Fidelity say, you know, how can I become a contrarian? And I think you need to start. I’m not sure. I don’t think everyone can do it, put it that way. So there has to be something inside one’s finger on it, but it’s the ability to back your own convictions, to be unemotional and to be patient, I think is part of it because often your, you’re gonna have to wait a bit.

**安東尼・波頓：**我覺得這與個人性格特質密切相關。反向投資者要樂於與眾不同。大多數人都喜歡隨波逐流，他們在羣體中尋求安全感，渴望得到他人的認可，喜歡聽到周圍人説 “你做得對，大家都這麼做”。所以，我認為反向投資者的性格構成中，有某種極為重要的特質。但這種特質很難確切描述，富達的同事們常常問我：“我怎樣才能成為一名反向投資者呢？” 我覺得這得從自身出發去探尋，但不得不説，並非所有人都具備這樣的能力。

這麼説吧，內心必須有一種堅定的力量，要能夠堅守自己的信念，保持冷靜、理性，同時還得具備耐心，因為在很多情況下，你需要耐心等待機會的降臨。

反向投資決策上需要特立獨行但並不意味着沒有朋友

**Nicolai Tangen：**Do you have any friends?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你有朋友嗎？

**Anthony Bolton：**Like, do you have some friends?Thank goodness.

**安東尼・波頓：**你是指我有沒有朋友嗎？謝天謝地，我當然有。

**Nicolai Tangen：**What I mean is it if you crave for people to like you, you’re probably not a good contrary, right?

**尼古拉・坦根：**我的意思是，如果一個人渴望被眾人喜愛，那他可能不太適合從事反向投資，你認同這種觀點嗎？

**Anthony Bolton：**Yes. I don’t know. I don’t think likeness and dislikeness comes into it. I mean, that’s more to do with people’s characteristics. But it’s, you know, what people say it’s lonely being a contrarian, which is slightly different. It doesn’t mean that you don’t have friends, but you’re sort of out on a limb and you know how it is. Investment, I often found the best opportunities were the uncomfortable ones. By the time it was comfortable, it was late and it would still might be alright for a while. But you have to be prepared. To be uncomfortable means that other people are you. You’re doing something that other people and several people probably tell you it’s wrong. I think funny enough, I think one of your recent people you were talking to said he gave a medical example of. you know, somebody who in, who made a big stride in cancer research. And they said at the time the guy was terribly unpopular because he was going against conventional wisdom. So you have to be somebody who’s happy, I think, to go against the conventional wisdom at times, not all the time, but at times.

**安東尼・波頓：**嗯，我不太確定。我認為，個人的受歡迎程度與是否適合反向投資並沒有直接關聯，這更多地取決於個人的性格特點。

人們常説，做反向投資的人往往很孤獨，這確實有一定道理。但這並不意味着你沒有朋友，而是説你在投資決策上需要特立獨行，並且要清楚自己在做什麼。在投資領域，我發現那些最佳的投資機會往往讓人感到不安。等到投資變得“舒適”時，往往已經錯過了最佳時機，雖然可能還能在一段時間內獲得收益，但你必須提前做好充分準備。

選擇做讓別人感到困惑的投資決策，意味着很多人可能會告訴你，你做錯了。有意思的是，我記得你之前採訪過的一個人曾舉過一個醫學領域的例子，有個人在癌症研究方面取得了重大突破，但在當時，由於他的研究思路與傳統觀念相悖，遭到了眾人的排斥。所以我認為，有時候你需要有勇氣挑戰傳統觀念，當然，並非任何時候都要如此。

**Nicolai Tangen：**Now, an emotional. What are you?

**尼古拉・坦根：**説到情緒管理，你是怎樣的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**An emotional I am an emotional. I think like.

**安東尼・波頓：**情緒方面，我想想……

**Nicolai Tangen：**Are you on the spectrum, you think?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你覺得自己在情緒管理上屬於什麼水平呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**I don’t think I’m extremely unemotional, but I am. I can take success and failure pretty much the same. That’s really important for investors. Don’t let the successes get to your head because everyone has successes, but conversely, everyone will go through a bad phase. And don’t let the bad time get you. That’s the bit that gets to most people. So how would I describe it? I think if you get very worked up about investments. I think in general that is bad in this business. You know, you have to stand, you have to take yourself sort of somewhat out of the situation and look down, but you spend all your life looking at your portfolio. meeting companies, thinking about these things.

**安東尼・波頓：**我覺得我並非那種極度冷靜的人，但面對成功和失敗，我能夠保持相對平和的心態，這對於投資者來説至關重要。不要因為一時的成功而沾沾自喜，因為每個人都會有成功的時刻；同樣，每個人也都會經歷投資的低谷期，不要讓失敗影響自己的判斷和決策，然而，大多數人往往很難做到這一點。該怎麼形容呢？我認為，如果在投資過程中過於情緒化，通常來説，這對投資事業是不利的。

你要學會讓自己置身於投資情境之外，以一種旁觀者的視角去審視局勢。畢竟，你花費大量時間研究投資組合、與企業交流、思考各種投資問題。

**Nicolai Tangen：**How can you be unemotional about what is your life?

**尼古拉・坦根：**投資幾乎是你生活的全部，你是如何做到不被情緒左右的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**I think unemotional, committed, you know, involved. It’s, you know, it’s the most fascinating business to be in, to meet all these companies, to be in touch with all the great trends in the world. But it’s at times don’t underestimate the market’s ability to discount. I think the mistake so many people do, they often talk about what’s the outlook? You know, is it, is the outlook bright? Is the outlook poor? But the key thing is what outlook is discounted in the stock market at the moment? It’s not the outlook, it’s how your view of the future compares with what’s discounted in the stock market.

**安東尼・波頓：**我覺得在投資時，要做到冷靜客觀，但同時也要全身心投入。投資是一個非常有趣的領域，在這個過程中，你可以接觸到各種各樣的企業，瞭解全球的重大發展趨勢。但你也要時刻牢記，市場的定價能力不可小覷。很多人常犯的錯誤是，他們總是關注市場的前景，比如市場前景是光明還是黯淡？但關鍵在於，當下股票市場已經反映了怎樣的市場預期？重要的不是市場前景本身，而是你對未來的判斷與市場當前預期之間的差異。

關注認可的基金的持倉情況在中小型公司中尤為關鍵 

**Nicolai Tangen：**When you look at the stock market, what are the type of things you look at?How do you gauge the stock market’s mood, for instance? What are the.

**尼古拉・坦根：**當你研究股票市場時，通常會關注哪些方面呢？比如，你是如何判斷市場情緒的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**OK. I was someone who would like to look at a whole amalgam of things. And I always say, look, what I looked at wasn’t necessarily different from what most people perhaps how I mixed it together. It’s interesting when I look at a stock, often the first thing I look at is the chart. I want to know, you know, the chart immediately tells.

**安東尼・波頓：**我習慣綜合考量多方面因素。我常説，我關注的內容可能與大多數人並無太大差異，關鍵在於我如何將這些信息進行整合分析。有趣的是，當我研究一隻股票時，通常首先會查看它的走勢圖。通過走勢圖，我能快速瞭解一些關鍵信息。

**Nicolai Tangen：**So the chart being the stock price, right?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你説的走勢圖，就是股票價格走勢圖，對吧？

**Anthony Bolton：**Stock price and story.

**安東尼・波頓：**是的，包括股票價格走勢和背後的相關信息。

**Nicolai Tangen：**And so I’m putting a chart in front of you. What are you, what are the things you listen to?

**尼古拉・坦根：**現在假設我把一張股票走勢圖擺在你面前，你會關注哪些具體信息呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**So the first, I mean, you know, it told am I early or late? Is this a stock that’s done well for a long time, you know, which probably means I’m late. Doesn’t always mean I’m late, but probably. Is it a stock that hasn’t done well. And those were the ones I particularly like, you know, to screen for because I’d look at them, some of them were no good. You know, they’re always going to be dogs. But particularly if there was change in the management or the portfolio businesses that they were in or the environment was changing for the better, then I’d look, especially with UK companies. I’d look at the shareholder list. I found it’s a very underrated thing to look at shareholder lists. And what I was looking for is, are the funds that I rate already owners of this company? This is particularly so in medium and smaller companies. and that was very much the heart of my approach. I mean, as the funds got bigger, I bought more big companies. but I think my greatest love was in medium small companies because you could, if you did your work, you knew that you knew more on those companies than most people do. So I mean, I can’t, you know, I’m 10 years out of date from doing it or even longer. But there were certain funds that I rated and it was interesting. If I saw lots of them there, then I knew I was late. They’d all discovered it before me. If I saw none of them there, I mean, that might be a great sign or it might be just it’s a terrible business. No one’s ever going to buy this. Perhaps the best were maybe there was already one other fund that I rated and that sort of said, well, they’ve already picked this up. And then but it leaves lots of room for other people to come in later.

**安東尼・波頓：**首先，我會通過走勢圖判斷自己入場的時機是早還是晚。這隻股票是長期表現良好，還是一直表現不佳？如果是前者，可能意味着我入場已經晚了，但這也不是絕對的。我會特別關注那些表現不佳的股票，篩選這些股票時，我發現其中一些確實沒什麼投資價值，就像 “垃圾股” 一樣。但如果這些公司的管理層發生變動，或者其業務組合有所調整，又或者所處行業環境開始向好發展，我就會進一步研究，尤其是對於英國的公司。

我還會查看公司的股東名單，我認為這是一個常常被忽視但卻非常重要的信息。我會關注我認可的那些基金是否已經持有這隻股票，這在中小型公司中尤為關鍵，這也是我投資策略的核心部分。隨着管理的資金規模不斷擴大，我也會投資更多大型公司，但我最喜歡的還是中小型公司，因為只要你做足功課，就能比大多數人更瞭解這些公司的情況。

如今，我已經遠離投資一線十年甚至更久了，但我還記得，以前有一些我比較認可的基金，如果我發現它們大量持有某隻股票，那就説明我入場晚了，它們比我更早發現這隻股票的價值。要是我發現沒有一隻我認可的基金持有這隻股票，這可能是個好信號，也可能意味着這是一家糟糕的公司，根本沒人願意投資。最理想的情況是，有一隻我認可的基金已經持有這隻股票，這説明這隻股票已經被發現有投資價值，但還有足夠的空間供其他投資者入場。

**Nicolai Tangen：**Did you look at buy and sell recommendations and so on, or what did you do with those?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你會參考買賣建議之類的信息嗎？你是怎麼處理這些信息的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**Yes, I, you know, that the two great things of the stock market. the weighing and the voting. Most people spend all their time on the weighing and I wouldn’t underestimate that. And obviously our analysts spent all that time on the way. But the voting was the bit that I really was interested looking, trying to measure sentiment in stock, and that’s ownership and things like insider dealing. I was, that was really important to me. If the insider trades confirmed or conflicted with my views. well, yeah, the CEOs were buying. But I also use charts as a sort of confirming or not confirming sign. People find that difficult. You know, Anthony, why do you think charts are important? But if the chart confirm my fundamental view and my general view. I might take a bigger position. And if the chart didn’t, if the chart started to roll down, it’s something, it was one of the factors I might come back my position because it was always incremental to me. I never came in one day and bought a huge position in a company. I was normally building something up. As my conviction increased and then the share price moved or something changed and then probably I was reducing it. So that for me it wasn’t black and white.

**安東尼・波頓：**會的，股票市場中有兩個重要因素，即 “權衡” 和 “投票”。大多數人把大量時間花在權衡股票的價值上，我並不否認這很重要，我們的分析師也會花費大量時間進行這方面的工作。但我更關注 “投票” 因素，也就是通過研究股票的所有權結構、內幕交易等情況來衡量市場情緒。這對我的投資決策非常重要，如果內幕交易情況與我的判斷相符或相悖，比如公司首席執行官在大量買入股票，這都會影響我的決策。

同時，我也會把走勢圖作為一種確認或否定投資決策的參考依據。很多人不太理解這一點，他們會問我：“安東尼，你為什麼覺得走勢圖很重要呢？” 如果走勢圖與我對公司基本面和整體市場的判斷相符，我可能會加大投資力度；但如果走勢圖顯示股價開始下跌，這就會成為我調整投資倉位的一個考慮因素。

對我來説，投資決策並非非黑即白，我不會在一天之內就大量買入某家公司的股票，通常是逐步建倉。隨着我對投資的信心增強，我會增加倉位；當股價發生變動或者其他因素髮生變化時，我可能就會減持。

**Nicolai Tangen：**And management was really important.

**尼古拉・坦根：**公司管理層在你的投資決策中也很重要吧？

**Anthony Bolton：**You know, I, at the height, I was doing sort of four companies a day. but it was remeeting just in one meeting. I find, yeah, people impress you, but it’s seeing how the story develops and are they consistent in what they say.

**安東尼・波頓：**沒錯，在我投資生涯的高峯期，我每天要調研四家公司，不過很多時候只是進行二次會面。我發現，有些人初次見面時會給人留下深刻印象，但更重要的是觀察他們講述的公司發展故事是否能夠持續推進，以及他們的言論是否前後一致。

特別青睞具有不對稱回報的股票，即下行風險有限，但特定情況下卻有很大的上漲空間

**Nicolai Tangen：**How do you decide the entry into a contrary position?

**尼古拉・坦根：**你是如何決定何時建立反向投資倉位的呢？

**Anthony Bolton：**I would buy a position, but I’d normally start, it was normally at half a percent, so 50 bits type position in the company. And then as my conviction increased, I may go up to 100 and then up to 200 and then I have a few positions where I perhaps got up to 400. It was interesting in the early days, I thought of everything 400, that’s like 4% of the portfolio. In the early days, I thought of everything absolutely because obviously in the last 10 or no last 20 years or so, one thinks much more in terms of relative positions than absolute positions. But that’s how I did it. And I normally had, you know, a thesis on it. One of the things I particularly like were asymmetric returns. So stocks where I thought the downside was limited. but they might in certain circumstances have a lot of upside.

**安東尼・波頓：**我通常會先買入一定倉位，剛開始一般是公司股票的0.5%，也就是50個基點左右的倉位。隨着我對這筆投資的信心增強，我可能會將倉位增加到100個基點，然後是 200個基點，有些時候，我甚至會將倉位提高到400個基點。早期，我習慣從絕對倉位的角度去考慮投資，比如當時我會把400個基點的倉位看作是投資組合的4%。但在過去的10 年，不，應該是近20年左右，人們更多地從相對倉位的角度去思考投資決策。我一般會基於一定的投資邏輯來建倉，我特別青睞具有不對稱回報的股票。也就是説，這類股票的下行風險有限，但在某些特定情況下，卻有很大的上漲空間。（未完待續）

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