【科技】中國如何在電池和電動汽車製造方面做得如此出色？_風聞

評論翻譯

@martian9999

a a citizen of the world, I love this situation. Cheaper batteries = quicker decarbonization of transport and industry. The thing holding up wind and solar is their intermittancy. Batteries are a big part of the solution, but they need to be cheap, and we need them in massive amounts.

作為一名世界公民，我非常喜歡這種局面，更便宜的電池意味着交通和工業的更快脱碳。風能和太陽能的瓶頸在於它們的間歇性，電池是解決方案的重要組成部分，但它們需要便宜，而且我們需要大量的電池。0

@zeytelaloi

I was recently in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia in East Africa. I saw truck-loads of small BYDs being brought in. Taxis are switching over to them and other small EVs like the Wuling. The elites are driving Chinese-made VWs (like the one shown there for leasing), and Japanese EVs as well. A guy I met is opening up a factory in a smaller Ethiopian city to produce electric tuktuks.

Ethiopia produces more electricity than it uses (having built a massive dam), due to bad power distribution infrastructure. As they improve it, reducing power outages, the ICEs will be driven out. Many poor countries struggle with trade imbalances, being forced to import so many things, and as a result they have weak currencies. Having to import fossil fuels is a big pain.

我最近在東非埃塞俄比亞的首都亞的斯亞貝巴，我看到大量小型比亞迪汽車被運進來。出租車正在轉向這些車以及其他小型電動車，比如五菱。精英們開着中國製造的大眾汽車（比如視頻中展示的租賃車）以及日本電動車。我遇到的一個傢伙正在埃塞俄比亞的一個小城市開設工廠，生產電動三輪車。

埃塞俄比亞的發電量超過了其使用量（因為建了一座大型水壩），但由於電力分配基礎設施不佳，電力供應不穩定。隨着他們改善基礎設施，減少停電，內燃機車將被淘汰。許多貧窮國家面臨貿易不平衡問題，被迫進口大量商品，導致貨幣疲軟。進口化石燃料是一個巨大的負擔。0

@passby8070

That’s a good observation, counter to popular beliefs, I think poorer countries will electrify first due to reliant on oil import, which is a massive risk.

這是一個很好的觀察，與普遍看法相反，我認為貧窮國家會首先實現電氣化，因為它們依賴石油進口，這是一個巨大的風險。0

@FabioCapela

Keep in mind that Ethiopia did a very bold move, in that it banned imports of ICE cars; it also has a very bad fuel distribution infrastructure — refueling lines can take hours — and with the ban on ICE cars no further improvement to fuel distribution is expected.

In large part the move was done to solve their issue with fuel imports (which are already a large, and until the ban growing, part of their imports).

請記住，埃塞俄比亞採取了一個非常大膽的舉措，即禁止進口內燃機汽車；該國的燃料分配基礎設施也非常糟糕——加油排隊可能需要幾個小時——而且隨着內燃機汽車的禁令，預計燃料分配不會進一步改善。

這一舉措在很大程度上是為了解決他們的燃料進口問題（燃料進口已經是他們進口的重要組成部分，並且在禁令之前還在增長）。0

@nakdickson

Chinese smartphone makers are the reason smartphones became affordable. I believe they’ll do the same with the car market.

中國智能手機制造商是智能手機變得便宜的原因，我相信他們會在汽車市場做同樣的事情。0

@dwc1964

9:17 - this right here is something I’ve been saying for over a decade:

If you’re going to spend public money to create a market for EVs in order to promote their development, the best way to start is not to provide “incentives” to individual consumers, but to just buy the vehicles directly, replacing every type of vehicle with an internal combustion/diesel engine that any government agency has with an electric model over time. This approach has multiple advantages over the personal market-based approach:

(1) it converts public money into public assets - things that the public owns and are used for publicly-directed purposes;

(2) it replaces things we were going to have to replace anyway, on a regular schedule;

(3) it directs R&D towards practicality and efficiency rather than the whiz-bang performance metrics that impress early-adopter techbros;

(4) it doesn’t encourage the use of the private automobile as the primary mode of transportation, but rather goes the other way with electrified mass transit; and

(5) several others but I’ll leave it there.

After that, consumer incentives for EVs (and disincentives against combustion engines) can work towards shifting the private consumer market, with points (3) and (4) in mind. This is why, it seems to me, there are so many really good, inexpensive (before incentives), small Chinese EVs, while the North American market is oversized, overpowered, overpriced “performance” cars and big-assed SUVs and pickup trucks.

If BYD were allowed to compete in the North American market on a free-market basis, it would hit the North American automakers harder than the Japanese automakers did in the 1970s. And just like back then, it will have been a downfall of their own making.

9:17 - 這是我十多年來一直在説的：

如果你打算用公共資金為電動汽車創造一個市場以促進其發展，最好的開始方式不是向個人消費者提供“激勵”，而是直接購買這些車輛，逐步將政府機構擁有的所有內燃機/柴油發動機車輛替換為電動車型。這種方法比基於個人市場的方法有多個優勢：

（1）它將公共資金轉化為公共資產——公眾擁有並用於公共目的的東西；

（2）它按計劃替換我們無論如何都需要替換的東西；

（3）它將研發方向引導到實用性和效率上，而不是那些讓早期採用者技術迷們印象深刻的炫酷性能指標；

（4）它不鼓勵將私人汽車作為主要交通方式，而是轉向電氣化的大眾交通；

（5）還有其他一些優勢，但我就不一一列舉了。

之後，針對電動汽車的消費者激勵（以及對內燃機汽車的抑制措施）可以在考慮第（3）和第（4）點的情況下，推動私人消費市場的轉變。這就是為什麼在我看來，中國有這麼多真正好、便宜（在激勵之前）、小型電動汽車，而北美市場則是超大、超強、超貴的“性能”汽車和大屁股SUV和皮卡。

如果比亞迪被允許在北美市場自由競爭，它將比20世紀70年代的日本汽車製造商對北美汽車製造商造成更大的衝擊。就像那時一樣，這將是他們自己造成的衰落。0

BYD is building a manufacturing facility in Brazil, the cars produced there won’t be facing the same tariffs as the ones imported from overseas and will likely flood brazil’s market with BYD cars when operating at full capacity. an interesting fact about this new facility is that its plant was acquired from Ford. the north american company closed all facilities in brazil between 2019 and 2021. you can see perfectly the trend here.

比亞迪正在巴西建設一個製造工廠，那裏生產的汽車不會面臨與從海外進口的汽車相同的關税，並且在滿負荷生產時可能會用比亞迪汽車淹沒巴西市場。關於這個新工廠的一個有趣事實是，它的工廠是從福特收購的。這家北美公司在2019年至2021年間關閉了在巴西的所有工廠。你可以清楚地看到這裏的趨勢。0

@3nimac

Reminds me of Kodak who invented the digital camera but didn’t pursue it to protect its film business but then they got stomped anyway. Will happen with legacy car makers.

這讓我想起了柯達，他們發明了數碼相機，但沒有繼續發展以保護其膠片業務，最終他們還是被淘汰了。傳統汽車製造商也會發生同樣的事情。0

@bearstar_bearson4350

Yep! They’re aware of it though. I have worked with a couple on a consulting basis. The issue for them this time is that a lot of them didn’t realise the major threat caused by Chinese EVs before it was basically to late. Also it’s just veeeeery difficult to completely change the direction of a 100 year old company

是的！不過他們也意識到了這一點。我曾以諮詢的身份與其中幾家公司合作。這次的問題是許多公司在意識到中國電動汽車帶來的重大威脅時已經為時已晚。而且，徹底改變一家百年老公司的方向非常非常困難。0

@rudalsxv

As a consumer, this is a good news. Don’t buy into doom and gloom from the incumbent capital owners.

They just don’t want competition, globalization is what they wanted and welcomed it when it benefitted them.

Don’t buy into their manipulation.

作為一名消費者，這是個好消息。不要被現有資本所有者的悲觀情緒所影響。

他們只是不想要競爭，全球化是他們想要的，並且在有利於他們時歡迎它。

不要被他們的操縱所迷惑。