周波：澳大利亞從未學會平衡的藝術，總是在打別人的仗

澳大利亞廣播公司（ABC）近期推出有關美英澳三邊安全夥伴關係（AUKUS）的系列播客專訪，聚焦地緣政治、軍事、核安全、經濟與就業等多個領域。節目第三期聚焦“AUKUS與中國”主題，邀請澳大利亞海軍參謀長馬克·哈蒙德（Mark Hammond）、澳大利亞國防部副部長休·傑弗裏（Hugh Jeffrey）、清華大學戰略與安全研究中心研究員周波，對AUKUS作出評論。

哈蒙德和傑弗裏認為，澳大利亞的國家安全高度依賴海上航行自由，澳大利亞的經濟貿易離不開全球互聯互通。他們表示，對區域航行自由的干擾可能會對澳大利亞經濟產生深遠影響，而AUKUS能夠讓澳大利亞更有效地形成威懾，應對潛在威脅，或至少能確保潛在對手“三思而行”。

對於一些批評者認為AUKUS可能“無關緊要”的觀點，兩人表示，只有通過展現自衞決心，澳大利亞才能在真正的衝突爆發時獲得盟友的保護。AUKUS還將幫助澳大利亞提升自主製造核潛艇的能力，減少對外部支持的依賴。

周波對上述評論進行了批駁。

以下為訪談部分實錄，觀察者網和北京對話受權編譯：

**ABC：**周波大校(退役)不僅是中國資深的安全分析家之一，而且對澳大利亞十分了解。早在1999年，他曾在澳大利亞皇家軍事學院訪學3個月。我很想知道，中國是如何看待AUKUS的？

**周波：**我們不喜歡AUKUS。近年來，印太地區出現了兩個重要動向：一個是四邊安全對話（Quad），另一個是AUKUS。我的看法很簡單：Quad的出現是因為中國，而AUKUS的出現則是針對中國。

**ABC：**那麼，在您和中國政策制定者的心目中，AUKUS的主要針對目標就是中國，是嗎？

**周波：**毫無疑問，AUKUS就是針對中國的。這在任何人看來都是毋庸置疑的。我們從一開始就不喜歡它，認為它不應繼續發展。但是，即使它繼續發展，也不會產生太大影響，因為它不會改變現有規則。

**ABC：**為什麼？

**周波：**因為澳大利亞大概要花20年的時間才能擁有8艘核潛艇。即使20年後全部建成，與中國的軍事發展相比，到那個時候中國人民解放軍海軍會是什麼水平？中國海軍已經是世界上最大的海軍了。

**ABC：**你的回答恰恰反映了AUKUS的成立原因。中國軍事快速發展，海軍規模不斷壯大，成為世界上最大的海軍。對此，你能理解像澳大利亞這樣的國家為何會覺得在面對這種重大變局時不能毫無準備嗎？

**周波：**你的話難以自圓其説。我可以告訴你，在過去的40年裏，中國的軍費開支一直佔GDP的1.5%左右，有時甚至更低，從未超過2%。雖然中國的經濟規模很大，因此1.5%的開支可能看起來不小，但中國希望以穩定且可持續的方式發展軍隊。我們並未與任何國家進行軍備競賽，中國的發展是基於自身節奏和邏輯的。

**ABC：**AUKUS是否在你參與的會議中被討論過？

**周波：**AUKUS在中國經常被提及和討論，這並不是秘密，所有人都知道。我的看法是，AUKUS是美國讓盟國為其軍費分擔成本的一種努力。很明顯，美國現在更加依賴盟友，這是拜登政府的外交核心理念之一。特朗普政府的口號是“美國優先”，但對拜登來説，可能是“盟友優先”。

拜登政府為什麼如此重視盟友？因為拜登政府知道，美國也知道，自身已無法單獨維持全球存在，需要盟友的支持。

**ABC：**你是否暗指澳大利亞被視為美國的延伸？

**周波：**這可能是另一種解讀。無論如何，美國確實需要澳大利亞，因為美國知道自身力量不足。

ABC：（AUKUS支持者）認為，這些核潛艇將起到遠程威懾作用，可能會讓正在擴軍的國家“三思而行”，並在未來改變其戰略思維。你能理解這其中的邏輯嗎？

**周波：**完全不能理解。澳大利亞真的有人相信中國會突然以任何理由攻擊其本土嗎？顯然不會。澳大利亞唯一可能捲入衝突的地方是台灣海峽或南海。這意味着衝突將發生在離中國更近的地方，在中國家門口，而不是相反。所以，如果我們要談論威懾，那是在威懾什麼？針對誰？這又回到了剛才的問題：美國想聯合澳大利亞，是因為自身力量不足，需要盟友幫助。

坦率地説，從歷史上看，除了二戰期間以外，澳大利亞幾乎總是在幫別人打仗。無論是一戰中的加里波利（注：土耳其一地名），還是越南、阿富汗或伊拉克，都是如此。所以我不認為澳大利亞學會了平衡的藝術。

**ABC：**那麼，澳大利亞人最終應該得出什麼結論？你的意思是，我們應該認為中國是一個本質和平的國家嗎？

**周波：**我們仍未完成國家統一，因此在別無選擇的情況下，我們可能不得不通過武力解決統一問題，但這並不意味着一定會使用武力。中國人民是熱愛和平的。我們不喜歡戰爭。想想美國發動了多少次戰爭。

自1979年以來，中國從未在境外殺害過一個外國人，除了中印邊境的一次衝突，造成4名中國士兵和20名印度士兵死亡。但這是一場涉及主權問題的邊境衝突。你找不到任何一個例子可以説明中國如何威脅任何國家。中國何時威脅過澳大利亞？何時干涉過南海的航行自由？你無法舉出這樣的例子。

以下為採訪原文：

ABC: Senior Colonel Zhou Bo is not only one of the best-informed security analysts in China, but he knows Australia well, having spent 3 months at Duntroon, the Australian Army’s officer training college, back in 1999. I was keen to know, what is the view inside China about AUKUS?

Zhou Bo: I don’t believe we like AUKUS, because in recent years there are two developments in the Indo-Pacific: one is QUAD, another is AUKUS. The difference between the two, in my opinion, is very simple. Quad is because of China, and AUKUS is against China.

ABC: So, there is no doubt in your mind and in the minds of decision makers in China that it sees itself as the principal Target of AUKUS, does it?

Zhou Bo: Yeah, AUKUS is certainly against China, there is no doubt for anybody here in China, we don’t like it from the very beginning, and we believe it should not continue to grow, but even if it grows, it won’t matter that much, because it won’t be a game-changer.

ABC: Why not?

Zhou Bo: Because it would take Australia probably about two decades to have eight nuclear submarines, so even if you have 8 of them all together in 20 years, compared with China’s military development, what standard would the PLA navy have become by that time？Chinese navy is already is the largest in the world.

ABC: Your very answer is the reason why this whole development is underway. Your rapid military buildup, the size of your growing Navy, it’ll become the biggest in the world, can you understand why a country like Australia would think, well we can’t be completely exposed in the light of these big changes?

Zhou Bo: That is not something justifiable， f I just tell you that over the last four decades， China’s military expenditure is just around 1.5% of GDP, it is sometimes less than that, but it is never over 2% of GDP. Yes, China’s economy is big, so therefore 1.5% could be big, but China wants to develop its military in a sustainable way, in a steady manner, so we are not entering into arms race with anyone, I think China is developing the military according to his own tempo and logic.

ABC: I wonder whether AUKUS is ever mentioned at some of the meetings you attended, is AUKUS on the table or not?

Zhou Bo: AUKUS is frequently mentioned and discussed in China, so it is not a secret, everyone knows about it. I believe AUKUS is basically an American effort to let these allies to subsidise its military, because clearly the US now relies more on its allies, and this is almost the benchmark of the Biden administration. Now, Trump’s slogan is America first, but maybe for Biden, it’s allies first. Then, why would Biden administration give unprecedented importance to allies? Because it knows and America knows the United States can no longer afford a global presence, it needs allies.

ABC: You definitely say that Australia is seen as an extension of the United States.

Zhou Bo: That could be another interpretation another way, but basically， you’re needed because the United States knows that its own strengths would not be enough.

ABC: We are told that the nuclear subs we’re talking about will act as a deterrent at a distance, and that in fact it might give pause to a nation that is rearming, as you talk about, and to change its strategic thinking in the future. Can you see the logic to that?

Zhou Bo: Not at all. Does anybody in Australia believe that all of a sudden China is going to launch attack against Australia for any reasons? No, the only possible scenario for a conflict involving Australia is in Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea. That means you would have a conflict closer to our doorstep, it’s not the other way around. So if you are talking deterrence, deterrence for what, against what? So again this is the same situation: the United States wants to gang up with you, because they want you to help itself, whose strength is not enough. Historically speaking, let me be frank, Australia always fight other people’s wars, except during the second World War; apart from that, you’re always fighting other people’s wars, be it in Gallipoli, be it in Vietnam, be it in Afghanistan or Iraq. So, I don’t believe Australia has ever learnt the art of the balancing.

ABC: I wonder what a final message is to Australians then. Do we see China as inherently a peaceful country, is that what you’re saying to us?

Zhou Bo: Well, you see, we are still a country divided, so as a last resort, we may have to use force to resolve this issue for reunification, but it is not certain that we would definitely use force. You would find that Chinese are very much peaceful. China doesn’t like wars. Just think how many wars did United States launch. Ever since 1979, China has not killed a single foreigner elsewhere, apart from China-India border, where we have a deadly clash, resulting in the death of four Chinese soldiers and 20 Indian soldiers, but that is about border clash, about sovereignty.  You can’t just give me an example of how China has threatened anyone, and has China ever threaten Australia?, And how has China ever interfere with freedom of navigation in the South China Sea? You just can’t give me such an example.

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