【摩根看世界】摩根：馬姆達尼擊碎特朗普的美夢，社會主義能在美國“出圈”了？

【文/觀察者網 摩根】

紐約市長選戰爆出冷門——34歲的民主社會主義者佐赫蘭·馬姆達尼以黑馬之姿擊敗前州長安德魯·科莫，這場勝利在進步派陣營引發狂歡。

馬姆達尼的草根運動點燃了年輕選民的激情，這羣人早已對民主黨的“陳詞濫調”深感厭倦。數據顯示，25至35歲選民投票率創下紀錄，成為助推他勝選的關鍵力量。在伯尼·桑德斯和亞歷山德里婭·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯（AOC）等左翼明星站台下，這位州議員的逆襲被輿論稱作“社會主義衝擊波”，標誌着民主黨極左翼正式登上權力舞台。

支持者歡呼這場勝利是對激進改革的民意授權，馬姆達尼不僅將成為紐約首位千禧一代市長，更預示着民主黨領導層的世代更替已成定局。

馬姆達尼以絕對優勢勝選紐約市市長，第二名是特朗普和馬斯克背書的科莫

從租金管制、免費公交到市營超市和托兒服務，馬姆達尼的政綱兼具理想與現實色彩。作為紐約史上首位穆斯林兼南亞裔市長，他的當選更添歷史意義。競選集會上，年輕支持者為他“打造可負擔的公平城市”的承諾沸騰，AOC現場疾呼：“特朗普時代終將過去，未來屬於我們！”這般左翼思潮席捲年輕世代的場景，在數年前的紐約政壇難以想象。但2025年，馬姆達尼力克政治世家出身的中間派大佬科莫，讓民主黨左翼終於迎來揚眉吐氣的時刻。

對特朗普主義的重擊

馬姆達尼的勝利同樣是對特朗普主義的戰略打擊。雖然憲法禁止特朗普在2028年再次參選，但他已公開流露出挑戰常規、試圖重掌權力的想法。為此，他需要營造民主黨混亂無序、脱離民眾且內鬥不休的形象。馬姆達尼的勝選打破了這種敍事。他的競選證明，大膽的進步理念能夠大規模動員選民，尤其是在被兩黨長期忽視的工人階級、移民和年輕羣體中。

特朗普在最後關頭親自背書科莫，甚至敦促共和黨人柯蒂斯·斯利瓦退選。包括埃隆·馬斯克在內的主要共和黨捐助者和保守派人物也支持投向科莫，指望一箇中間派民主黨人比社會主義“造反派”更易擊敗或控制。他們的賭注失敗了。馬姆達尼不僅突破了這種兩黨聯合封鎖，更擊碎了”社會主義者無法當選”的政治迷思。

影響已超越紐約。馬姆達尼的成功為民主黨提供了一份重生攻略：動員不滿者，清晰闡述階層議題，聯合被遺忘者構建聯盟。若此模式在其他州市複製，將打亂共和黨2026年中期選舉的戰略部署。被更年輕的社會主義候選人激發出活力的民主黨基本盤，可能侵蝕特朗普在搖擺選民中的吸引力，並分裂其聯盟。

這種分裂構成多重威脅：首先，那些過去可能因幻滅或經濟困境倒向右翼民粹主義的年輕工薪階層選民，如今在左翼看到了可信的替代選擇；其次，馬姆達尼的勝利為民主社會主義運動注入了氧氣，不僅吸引草根組織者，也吸引了尋求領導層誠信與清晰的獨立和温和派選民；第三，它迫使共和黨不得不防守其原本希望翻轉的郊區和城市選區，尤其是在賓夕法尼亞、亞利桑那和佐治亞等州，那裏不斷上漲的生活成本正使左翼經濟民粹主義更具吸引力。

若馬姆達尼的勝利激勵類似候選人在關鍵搖擺州參選並獲勝，共和黨可能會發現其基本盤被拉向兩個方向：一個朝向特朗普式的訴苦政治，另一個朝向政策驅動的工薪階層訴求。曾幫助特朗普在2024年重返白宮的團結，可能在這場新興的反制運動的重壓下分崩離析。共和黨捐助者已在黨派方向問題上產生分歧，馬姆達尼的勝利引發了人們對2026年選戰的擔憂：面對一個重煥活力、具有階級意識、由青年領導的民主黨革新力量，共和黨的宣傳機器可能失靈。

2026年中期選舉對特朗普主義尤為關鍵，因為國會兩院的控制權將決定特朗普任期後半段的立法環境。若民主黨重新控制任一議院，他們將有能力拖延或阻撓特朗普的議程。民主黨掌控的眾議院可發起調查、舉行聽證會並限制關鍵政策的資金；民主黨掌控的參議院可阻撓司法任命和內閣提名，從而使特朗普的執政陷入癱瘓。共和黨失去的席位越多，特朗普的立法聯盟就越脆弱。

馬姆達尼的勝利標誌着進步勢頭正在高漲，這可能影響競爭激烈的選區，使2026年選舉不再僅僅是對特朗普領導力的公投，更是一場不同未來圖景的角逐：一個植根於民粹主義的怨憤，另一個植根於經濟變革。

建制派與革新派：民主黨的內部角力

馬姆達尼的爆冷勝出遠不止是迎來一位新市長——它暴露了其與科莫之戰所象徵的“民主黨深層分裂”。他們的衝突近乎戲劇化地凸顯了黨內建制派與崛起左翼的對立，或者如科莫所言，民主黨內部正在上演一場“安靜的內戰”。一方是以67歲的科莫為代表的温和派與傳統權力掮客，另一方則是34歲的馬姆達尼等社會主義革新派，他們代表更年輕、更激進的羣體。

馬姆達尼和AOC

這既是意識形態也是代際的分歧：許多老一輩民主黨人認為馬姆達尼（以及AOC等領袖）過於激進且缺乏經驗，揹負“過多意識形態包袱”；而年輕進步派則視科莫這樣的建制派老將為疲軟、道德妥協的中間主義化身，無法有效對抗共和黨右翼。

“這不再是我父親的那個民主黨，不是比爾·克林頓的民主黨，也不是巴拉克·奧巴馬的民主黨，”科莫近期哀嘆道，對黨的左轉表示不滿，“這是一個社會主義政黨。若不加制止，這將是民主黨的末日。”

科莫確實警告過，民主黨正“在其內部分歧的重壓下崩潰”，温和派與社會主義者之間的內戰可能使其分崩離析。在他看來，黨內領袖已“迷失身份”，花更多時間指望特朗普“犯錯”，而非提出對未來大膽的願景。這場黨內鬥爭在紐約選戰中暴露無遺：馬姆達尼贏得民主黨提名後，黨內建制派大多與他保持距離。

值得注意的是，參議院多數黨領袖查克·舒默——建制派的實際領袖——明確拒絕為本黨候選人馬姆達尼背書。（舒默的猶豫很可能源於馬姆達尼毫不掩飾的左翼立場，例如他對以色列政策的猛烈批評——這些立場讓許多中間派民主黨人感到不安。）與此同時，AOC等知名進步派人士力挺馬姆達尼，鞏固了民主黨年輕一派公開反抗元老派的態勢。

擊敗特朗普主義的民主黨左翼力量正在積聚

這場代際拉鋸戰緊隨民主黨在國家層面遭遇的沉重失敗。2024年，美國人目睹了兩位八旬老人的總統對決——而民主黨人輸了。唐納德·特朗普在2024年贏得連任，因為民主黨選民最終拒絕了由另一位年長提名人所代表的現狀。這場選舉被廣泛視為民主黨後繼無人：當喬·拜登在辯論中的失態加劇了人們對黨領袖過於年老、脱離實際的觀感時，甚至一些忠誠的民主黨人也感到尷尬。

此後，民主黨的身份危機一直在醖釀。許多基本盤選民並非倒向共和黨，而是在期待能回應其訴求的新領導層和令人信服的願景。在此背景下，年輕進步派明星的崛起給一些民主黨人帶來了新希望。民主黨有理由對未來感到樂觀。馬姆達尼和AOC等領袖正在證明，大膽的左翼理念能夠激發選民的活力。

紐約的分裂是全國局勢的縮影。正如馬姆達尼的競選所主張的，科莫式的中間主義政治無法擊敗特朗普主義，全國許多活動家相信，民主黨必須規劃一條大膽的新路線，以激勵選民並對抗右翼的吸引力。擁有宏大理念的年輕領袖——如36歲的AOC——被視為更有能力應對特朗普時代共和黨策略的民主黨領袖。

有跡象表明，這一轉變已在進程中。全美範圍內，老一輩民主黨議員退休潮正為下一代創造機會。受馬姆達尼獲勝的激勵，進步派新人在美國各地勝選。AOC及其同僚若能駕馭紐約展現出的草根能量，將有望主導民主黨的未來。在馬姆達尼的勝選集會上，AOC關於後特朗普時代“屬於我們”的號召不僅是慶祝之辭，更傳遞出火炬正在交接的明確信息。

若民主黨要找到重振之路，這條由拒絕按資排輩的年輕領袖們開闢的道路很可能就是答案。一場深刻的代際更替舞台已經搭好——這可能會在未來幾年重新定義民主黨。

社會主義治理能否在美國大都市奏效？

如果説馬姆達尼的崛起代表着一場代際轉變，那麼他的下一項挑戰就是將青年的熱情轉化為有效的治理。熱情的“蜜月期”很快將讓位於來自賦予他權力的選民的審視。紐約是一座既充滿躁動青年又盤踞着根深蒂固財富階層的城市，人們將密切關注馬姆達尼的民主社會主義議程能否在不大幅削弱城市經濟活力的前提下，帶來真正的變革。他的成敗不僅將塑造紐約的未來，更將檢驗進步主義治理能否在美國大都市真正奏效。

在國家層面，政治氛圍也在轉變。正如特朗普在馬姆達尼勝選後所言，“美國人現在面臨一個選擇——在真理與常識之間。”但馬姆達尼的勝利已改寫了這一選項。社會主義在美國不再是負面詞彙——它已成為全國性對話的一部分。紐約選民選出的不只是一位市長；他們拓寬了美國政治想象力的邊界。

儘管由於出生在烏干達，從憲法上講他沒有資格競選總統，但馬姆達尼的理念和影響力仍可能塑造民主黨在全國的方向，並影響將推動其運動向前發展的下一代領導人。

勝選之後，馬姆達尼發表演講

在選舉之夜，面對皇后區歡呼的人羣，馬姆達尼將焦點直指特朗普主義及其反對力量。“要讓特朗普主義的房東們承擔責任。讓億萬富翁們承擔責任。與工會站在一起，擴大勞工保護”。他宣稱，“當勞動者擁有鐵一般的權利時，企圖剝削他們的老闆就會變得渺小。紐約將始終是一座屬於移民、由移民建設、靠移民驅動的城市——而從今晚起，將由一位移民領導”。

接着，在他演講中已被許多人視為定義性時刻的一幕中，他微笑着停頓片刻，補充道：

“是的，我很年輕。我是穆斯林。我是民主社會主義者。而最‘要命’的是——我拒絕為此作出任何道歉。”

（翻頁查看英文版）

Mamdani “The Socialist Shockwave”

The New Face of the Democrats: What Mamdani’s Victory Means for 2026

A wave of euphoria swept through progressive circles as Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist, clinched a stunning victory over former Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral race. Mamdani’s grassroots campaign energized young voters who had long seen the Democrats as “stale and tired,” with the turnout highest among 25–35 year-olds – a sign of youthful enthusiasm powering his win. Backed by prominent left-wing figures like Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), the young assemblyman’s insurgent run toppled a party elder in what many are calling a “socialist shockwave” that handed power to the Democrats’ far-left flank. His victory, celebrated by supporters as a mandate for bold change, not only makes Mamdani the first millennial mayor of America’s largest city – it also signals a broader changing of the guard within the Democratic Party.

Mamdani’s platform – from rent freezes and free public transit to city-run grocery stores and childcare – and his status as the first Muslim and South Asian mayor of NYC, imbued the race with a historic, celebratory vibe. Crowds at his rallies were electrified by his calls to make the city more affordable and just, with AOC herself exhorting young New Yorkers that “there has been a day before [Trump’s] presidency, and there will be a day after. And it belongs to us.” Such scenes of jubilant, youthful supporters embracing a democratic socialist agenda would have been unthinkable in the city’s establishment politics a few years ago. Yet in 2025, Mamdani’s win over a well-known centrist like Cuomo – a scion of one of New York’s storied political families – has given the left wing of the party a moment to rejoice and claim momentum for a new generation.

A Blow to Trumpism

Mamdani’s victory is also a strategic setback for Trumpism. Donald Trump, though constitutionally barred from running again in 2028, has openly flirted with the idea of defying norms and attempting a return to power. To do so, he needs a Democratic Party perceived as disorganized, out of touch, and riddled with infighting. Mamdani’s win disrupts that narrative. His campaign showed that bold progressive ideas can mobilize voters at scale, particularly in working-class, immigrant, and youth-heavy constituencies often ignored by both parties.

Trump personally endorsed Andrew Cuomo in a last-ditch effort to block Mamdani, even urging Republican Curtis Sliwa to drop out. Leading Republican donors and conservative figures, including Elon Musk, threw their support behind Cuomo, hoping that a centrist Democrat would be easier to beat or control than a socialist insurgent. Their gamble failed. Mamdani not only overcame this bipartisan blockade, but he also revealed cracks in the narrative that socialism is unelectable.

The implications go beyond New York. Mamdani’s success offers a playbook for a revitalized Democratic Party: mobilize the disaffected, speak clearly about class, and build coalitions of the left-out. If this model is replicated in other cities and states, it could complicate the GOP’s 2026 midterm election strategy. A reinvigorated Democratic base, energized by younger socialist candidates, may erode Trump’s appeal among swing voters and fracture his coalition.

This fracture poses multiple threats. First, younger working-class voters who might have drifted toward right-wing populism in the past—out of disillusionment or economic desperation—are now seeing credible alternatives on the left. Second, Mamdani’s win gives oxygen to the Democratic Socialist movement, attracting not only grassroots organizers but also independent and moderate voters looking for integrity and clarity in leadership. Third, it pressures the GOP to defend suburban and urban districts it had hoped to flip, especially in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, where rising costs of living are making leftist economic populism more attractive.

If Mamdani’s win inspires similar candidates to run—and win—in battleground states, the GOP may find its base pulled in two directions: one toward Trump-style grievance politics, the other toward policy-driven working-class appeals. The unity that helped Trump return to office in 2024 could splinter under the weight of this emerging counter-movement. With Republican donors already divided over the direction of the party, Mamdani’s victory raises the spectre of a 2026 cycle where GOP messaging falters in the face of a rejuvenated, class-conscious, youth-led Democratic insurgency.

The 2026 midterms are particularly critical for Trumpism because control of Congress—both the House of Representatives and the Senate—will determine the legislative environment for the second half of Trump’s term. If Democrats regain control of either chamber, they will have the power to stall or block Trump’s agenda. A Democratic House could launch investigations, hold hearings, and restrict funding for key policies. A Democratic Senate could block judicial appointments and cabinet nominations, effectively paralyzing Trump’s governance. The more seats Republicans lose, the more fragile Trump’s legislative coalition becomes. Mamdani’s victory signals a rising tide of progressive momentum that could help tip competitive districts, making the 2026 election less a referendum on Trump’s leadership and more a contest between competing futures: one rooted in populist grievance, the other in economic transformation.

Old Guard vs. New Guard: Democrats’ Internal Struggle

Mamdani’s upset did more than install a new mayor – it laid bare the “deep Democratic Party divide” that his battle with Cuomo came to symbolize. In almost cartoonishly stark terms, their clash pitted the party’s old guard versus its rising left wing, or as Cuomo himself put it, a “quiet civil war” raging among Democrats. On one side stand the moderates and traditional power-brokers – exemplified by 67-year-old Cuomo – and on the other, insurgent socialists like Mamdani, 34, who represent a younger, more radical cohort. It is a divide both ideological and generational: many older Democrats view figures like Mamdani (and by extension leaders like AOC) as too radical and untested, carrying “too much ideological baggage,” while younger progressives see establishment veterans like Cuomo as the embodiment of an exhausted, morally compromised centrism that can’t effectively beat the Republican right. “That is not my father’s Democratic Party. It’s not Bill Clinton’s Democratic Party. It’s not Barack Obama’s Democratic Party,” Cuomo lamented recently, bemoaning the party’s leftward lurch. “This is a socialist party. It would be the death of the Democratic Party” if unchecked.

Indeed, Cuomo has warned that the Democratic Party is “imploding under the weight of its own divisions,” with a civil war between moderates and socialists threatening to tear it apart. From his perspective, party leaders have “lost their identity” and spend more time banking on Trump “making a mistake” than offering a bold vision for the future. This intraparty struggle was on full display in the NYC race: after Mamdani surged to the Democratic nomination, much of the party establishment kept him at arm’s length. Notably, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer – de facto leader of the old guard – pointedly declined to endorse the Democratic nominee, Mamdani. (Schumer’s hesitation likely stemmed from Mamdani’s unabashedly left-wing stances, such as his fierce criticism of Israel’s policies – positions that made many centrist Democrats uneasy.) Meanwhile, prominent progressives like AOC rallied behind Mamdani, solidifying the sense that the Democratic Party’s youth wing was in open rebellion against its elders.

National Implications and the Road Ahead

This generational tug-of-war comes on the heels of a sobering defeat for Democrats at the national level. In 2024, Americans witnessed a presidential contest between two octogenarian candidates – and the Democrat lost. President Donald Trump won a second term in 2024, as Democratic voters ultimately rejected the status quo represented by another elderly nominee. The election was widely seen as an age problem for the party: even some loyal Democrats cringed as Joe Biden’s debate stumbles reinforced perceptions that the party’s leadership was too old and out of touch.

In the aftermath, a Democratic identity crisis has been brewing. Many in the base aren’t defecting to Republicans; rather, they’re holding out for fresh leadership and a compelling vision that speaks to their needs. Against this backdrop, the rise of young progressive stars is giving some Democrats new hope. For Democrats, there are reasons to feel optimistic about the future. Leaders like Mamdani and AOC are proving that bold left-wing ideas can energize voters.

The split in New York offers a microcosm of what’s happening nationally. Just as Mamdani’s campaign argued that Cuomo’s brand of centrist politics was incapable of defeating Trumpism, many activists nationwide believe the Democratic Party must chart a bold new course to inspire voters and counter the right’s appeal. Younger leaders with big ideas – like AOC at 36 – are seen as better suited to take on Trump-era Republican tactics.

There are signs that this transition is already underway. Across the country, a wave of retirements by aging Democratic lawmakers is creating openings for the next generation. Progressive newcomers are winning races in diverse corners of America, often inspired by the same frustrations and ideals that propelled Mamdani. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her cohort are poised to champion the Democratic Party’s future if they can harness the grassroots energy on display in New York. At Mamdani’s victory rally, AOC’s rallying cry that the post-Trump era “belongs to us” was more than celebratory rhetoric. It was a pointed message that the torch is being passed.

Can Socialist Governance Work in New York?

If the Democrats are to find their way out of the wilderness, it may well be on the path blazed by these younger leaders who refuse to wait their turn. The stage is set for a profound generational changing of the guard – one that could redefine the Democratic Party in the years to come.

If Mamdani’s rise represents a generational shift, his next challenge will be turning youthful energy into effective governance. The “honeymoon period” of enthusiasm will soon give way to scrutiny — from the very voters who put him in power. New York, a city defined by both its restless young and its entrenched wealthy, will be watching closely to see whether his socialist agenda can deliver real change without undermining the city’s economic vitality. His success or failure will not only shape the city’s future but will test whether progressive governance can truly work in America’s great urban centres.

At the national level, the political atmosphere is also shifting. As Donald Trump said in his post-election remarks, “Americans now face a choice — between truth and common sense.” But Mamdani’s victory has already rewritten that choice. Socialism is no longer a negative word in America — it’s part of the national conversation. The voters of New York didn’t just elect a mayor; they expanded the boundaries of what American politics can imagine.

Though constitutionally ineligible to run for president because he was born in Uganda, Mamdani’s ideas and momentum could yet shape the Democratic Party’s national direction — and influence the next generation of leaders who will carry his movement forward.

On election night, standing before a roaring crowd in Queens, Mamdani turned his focus squarely toward Trumpism and the forces that opposed him. “Hold Trumpist landlords to account. Hold billionaires to account. Stand with unions and expand labour protections,” he declared. “When working people have ironclad rights, the bosses who seek to exploit them grow small. New York will remain a city of immigrants, built by immigrants, powered by immigrants — and as of tonight, led by an immigrant.”

Then, in what many are already calling the defining moment of his speech, he smiled, paused, and added:

“Yes, I am young. I am Muslim. I am a democratic socialist. And most damning of all — I refuse to apologize for any of it.”

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