林毅夫：西方分析人士搞錯了 中國經濟正走強
2月10日，美國《赫芬頓郵報》新聞評論網站《世界郵報》（World Post）發表世界銀行前副行長兼首席經濟學家林毅夫文章《未來二十年中國經濟的大方向》（觀察者網供稿）。這是該網站繼創刊號刊登國家主席習近平專訪（專訪作者合著《閻學通：中國新外交政策——區別對待敵友》，分析中國外交政策；以及10日發表觀察者網專欄作家張維為文章《中國的底線必須得到尊重》，討論中國國家安全政策之後，刊文對中國的經濟形勢和發展方向作出評估。以下為林毅夫文章：
《赫芬頓郵報》刊載觀察者網供文
2013年11月，在對重大經濟改革的一片呼聲中，中共召開了十八屆三中全會。此前，許多分析者和評論家們宣稱，由於體制問題，中國經濟正在走向停滯，中國經濟如果不進行根本性的結構調整，增長必將急劇滑坡。此外，增長速度的減緩將使貧富差距等社會問題更加突出，進而危及中國的政治穩定。他們錯誤判斷了中國經濟的現狀和軌跡。其實，中國經濟步履穩健，在未來十到十五年甚至更久的時期內，中國的國內生產總值（GDP）將保持8%的年增長率。本屆三中全會啓動了大規模經濟改革的計劃，其實質是進一步推動中國經濟的增長，避免下行風險；而不是拯救處在大災難邊緣的中國經濟。
毋庸諱言，中國經濟增長近期確實出現明顯減緩。從2010年第一季度到2013年第二季度，中國經濟連續13個季度出現減速，增長率從接近11%直降到7.5%。這是中國自1979年改革開放以來持續時間最長的增長減速。但是，造成中國經濟增長放緩的根本原因不在中國內部，而來自國際金融經濟危機帶來的全球性衝擊。只需將中國與其他新興經濟體作比較分析，即可得出更全面的結論。巴西經濟增長速度從2010年的7.5%一路下滑，到2011年跌到2.7%，2012年僅為0.9%；同期內，韓國經濟增長從6.3%跌到3.7%，再降至2.0%；台灣經濟增長從10.7%跌到4.1%，再降至1.3%；新加坡經濟增長也從10.8%跌倒5.0%，再降至1.3%。在全球經濟下行的巨大壓力之下，中國經濟的表現差強人意——中國2010年的經濟增長率為10.4%，到2011年下滑為9.3%，2012年降到7.8%。
沒有任何國家能永遠保持兩位數的經濟增長率。中國以這個速度持續增長了二十年，不管按什麼標準來看都堪稱經濟奇蹟。我們有充分的理由相信，只要保持當前方向不變，中國經濟還能將10%以下的高位增長再保持一代人的時間。
在可預見的未來，中國仍有足夠的空間繼續利用其作為發展中國家與發達國家的差距，來推動經濟增長。一般來説，發展中經濟體的後發優勢在於，能夠引進發達國家成熟技術與先進的工業實踐，以較小的成本與風險取得高速的經濟增長。第二次世界大戰以後至今，有13個經濟體利用後發優勢，將年均7%或更高的經濟增速維持了25年或更長的時間。中國便是這13個經濟體中規模最大的一個。有人説，在當前的發展模式下，中國的潛力已經告罄——這顯然是對中國經濟的誤判。
一個國家的人均收入水平很好地反映出該國的平均勞動生產力，其背後反映的是該國平均技術水平與產業水平。根據著名經濟歷史學家安格斯•麥迪森的估算，2008年時中國人均收入水平（按購買力平價計算），僅相當於美國當年水平的21%。中美兩國人均收入的差距，相當於日本與美國在1951年時；新加坡與美國在1967年時；台灣與美國在1975年時；以及韓國與美國在1977年時的差距水平。利用技術差距帶來的巨大潛力，這些經濟體都將7.6%至9.2%的高速年增長維持了二十年。
1978年，中國經濟剛起步時，人均收入只有154美元，連普通非洲國家人均收入水平的三分之一都不到。到2012年，中國人均收入達6100美元，已步入上中等收入國家行列。但中國目前的人均收入水平與發達國家間的差距，仍然只相當於日本、韓國幾十年前的水平。未來中國可以進一步利用後發優勢，繼續縮小差距，將8%左右的增長速度再保持一二十年。
中國健康的財政狀況進一步為經濟增長提供了保證。近期，許多媒體對中國地方政府過高的債務槓桿提出了嚴重警告。毋庸諱言，問題確實是存在的，但這些警告往往過於危言聳聽。中國中央政府債務佔GDP的14.9%，地方政府債務總額為17.9萬億人民幣，中央與地方債務之和仍低於GDP的50%。相比之下，日本的政府債務為GDP的240%，多數發達國家的政府債務也都超過了GDP的100%。另外，多數國家舉債主要是為了支持消費，這部分負債是真正的負債。中國的政府債務絕大部分用於基礎設施投資。這兩種債務的本質完全不同，何況中國政府還有3.8萬億美元的外匯儲備。除政府財政狀況良好外，中國的個人儲蓄率超過GDP的50%，排在世界前列。有如此穩健資產負債表，中國利用財政政策做反週期性刺激的能力，可以説非常強大。
三中全會發布了一系列積極的經濟改革規劃：市場將在資源配置上繼續扮演重要角色；私有經濟將獲得更多發展和競爭的空間；金融業也將逐步自由化。受這些改革措施的推動，我相信中國經濟還有巨大的潛力，能將8%的年增長率至少再保持一二十年。中國經濟只需將年增長率保持在7.3%，即可在2020年實現人均收入翻番的目標，併成為高收入國家。未來中國經濟的實際增長速度將大大超過這個水平。第二次世界大戰以後，只有韓國和台灣兩個經濟體實現了由低收入國家變為高收入國家的飛躍。中國經濟龐大的規模，意味着中國的飛躍將是一項更加偉大的成就。 林毅夫是世界銀行前任首席經濟學家及高級副行長。
（觀察者網楊晗軼/譯。翻頁請看英文原文）
Western Analysts Are Wrong: China’s Economy is Going Strong
BEIJING -- The Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress took place in November 2013 amid widespread calls for drastic economic reforms. Many analysts and commentators claim that the Chinese economy is stalling because of systemic problems and, therefore, nothing short of fundamental structural changes can save it from a precipitous downward spiral in growth rate.
Furthermore, many have suggested, slowing growth will exacerbate social problems such as the wealth gap and lead to political instability.
They are misjudging the state of the Chinese economy and its trajectory. China is actually on course to achieving 8 percent annual GDP growth for the next 10 to 15 years or longer. The sweeping economic reform agenda announced at the recent plenum was designed to further propel this growth and cover potential downside risks, not to save the economy from impending catastrophe.
To be sure, the growth rate has been slowing significantly in recent months. Since the first quarter of 2010, growth has been decelerating for 13 straight quarters from near double digits to 7.5 percent in the second quarter 2013. This has been the most sustained period of deceleration in growth since the start of economic reforms in 1979. However, the underlying causes for this slowdown are global, not China specific.
A survey of emerging economies around the world could help clarify the picture. Brazil saw its growth rate drop from 7.5 percent in 2010 to 2.7 percent in 2011 and 0.9 percent in 2012. During the same period, India’s growth rate went from 10.5 percent to 6.3 percent and 2.2 percent; South Korea from 6.3 percent to 3.7 percent and 2.0 percent; Taiwan from 10.7 percent to 4.1 percent and 1.3 percent; and Singapore from 10.8 percent to 5.0 percent and 1.3 percent. Pressured by the same global downward forces, China actually did not fare as badly, its growth rate dropping from 10.4 percent to 9.3 percent and 7.8 percent.
No country can sustain a double-digit growth rate indefinitely. China has done so for the past two decades -- a very long stretch by any standard. There are strong reasons to believe the Chinese economy, on its current course, can still deliver a high single-digit growth rate for another generation.
As a developing country, China has sufficient room to continue to use its gap with developed countries to drive its economic growth in the foreseeable future.
As a general rule, developing economies can take advantage of mature technologies and industrial practices in rich nations to generate high growth at lower costs and risks compared to developed economies. Post World War II, 13 such economies achieved higher than a 7 percent annual growth rate for longer than 25 years, of which China is no doubt the largest. Some say that China has already exhausted the potential of this model of development. But such an assessment is incorrect.
The gap in technology and industrial value-add can be measured by average labor productivity, which is in turn best reflected in average income per capita. According to data compiled by economist Angus Maddison, in 2008, China’s per capita income measured by purchasing power parity (PPT) was only 21 percent that of the United States’. This gap was equivalent to that between the U.S. and Japan in 1951, Singapore in 1967, Taiwan in 1975, and South Korea in 1977. Driven by this gap, all of these countries grew by high single-digit growth for more than two decades.
The first phase of China’s catch-up game took the country from income per capita of U.S. $154 in 1978, only one third of an average African country at that time, to U.S. $6,100 in 2012 -- a higher middle-income country. But it is still at the level of the likes of Japan and South Korea decades ago. China can continue to take advantage of this gap to grow at an approximately 8 percent annual rate for one to two decades.
China’s healthy fiscal conditions provide further assurances. Many media reports of late have sounded dire warnings about overleverage, particularly by local governments. No doubt, problems exist. But such concerns are often overstated.
Chinese central government’s debt is at 14.9 percent of GDP. Local government debts total 10 trillion RMB -- 19.2 percent of GDP. Even the most pessimistic estimates put local government debts at total of 17 trillion RMB. So, combined government debts are at 34.7 percent to 47.6 percent of GDP.
In comparison, Japan is at 240 percent. Most developed countries debts are above 100 percent of GDP. Furthermore, most nations’ debts is used largely to finance consumption and is, in other words, real borrowings. A vast majority of China’s government debts are used to finance investments in infrastructure. The two are qualitatively different.
On top of that, the government also has 3.7 trillion U.S. dollars in its foreign reserve coffer. In addition to the government’s strong fiscal position, China’s personal savings rate is over 50 percent of GDP, among the highest in the world. With this balance sheet, China’s ability to implement counter cyclical measures in times of need is exceptionally strong.
The Third Plenum announced aggressive economic reform initiatives. The market will continue to increase its role in resource allocations. The private sector will be given more room to grow and compete. The financial sector will be liberalized.
This growth enabled by these reforms will be substantially higher than the 6.8 percent required to reach the government’s goal of doubling income per capita by 2020, leading China to join the ranks of high-income nations.
Post World War II, only two economies, South Korea and Taiwan, have managed to leap from low-income to high-income status. Since China is many times bigger, that would be an extraordinary accomplishment indeed.